Tesla pledges growth after Q4 wobble with more ‘affordable models’ arriving early in 2025

Tesla shares rallied last week despite its fourth-quarter earnings falling short of expectations following news that less expensive cars would arrive in the first half of this year.

Glossing over earnings that saw the US brand’s net income drop to $US8.4 billion ($A13.5b) – 23 per cent down on the year before and 40 per cent lower than 2022’s peak $US14.1 billion ($A22.7b) profit – investors were excited by the declaration that production of the fully-autonomous Cybercab was scheduled for next year.

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During the call to investors, Tesla said profit fell despite costs reducing per car to below $US35,000 ($A56,000), excluding leases.

However, the US brand admitted the average price of each car it sells had now dropped below $US40,000 ($A64,000) – almost a third down on its mid-2022 peak.

More bad news released during the call included a claim that in markets like Germany, where the brand had built its European Gigafactory, sales had dropped almost 40 per cent.

Tesla undergoing final quality inspection at the Gigafactory Berlin production line
Tesla undergoing final quality inspection at the Gigafactory Berlin production line.

Good news? Tesla’s energy storage firm that sells the Powerwall reported sales had doubled while a general belief its owner, Elon Musk’s, new central role within the US government would favour both sales and profit over the next four years buoyed investor hopes for a brighter future.

Analysts pointed out that the US brand has yet to report on any sales impact from the outspoken CEO cozying up to far-right lawmakers among the car-maker’s traditional left-leaning fanbase.

Others have accused Musk of having spread himself too thin, with his interests now wrapped up in his social media company and new artificial intelligence and neurological ventures.

Speculation remains rife over just what shape Tesla’s more affordable models will take. Many point towards new base versions of the Model 3 and Model Y being introduced, although Tesla itself stated during the call that the cheaper cars would “utilise aspects of the next-generation platform”, suggesting an entirely new vehicle.

That could lead to the early introduction of the Model Q in a few months’ time that will be priced below $US30,000 ($A48,000).

2025 Tesla Model Y
Are cheaper Tesla Model 3 and Y variants coming, or a completely new and more affordable model?

Other fresh news included Musk stating it would begin operating a new paid, unsupervised Full Self Driving capability in Austin, Texas.

Musk did not reveal whether the new trial would involve customer-owned vehicles or if Tesla will roll out a fleet of heavily modified vehicles that could be leased to companies. Pricing was also not disclosed.

The Texas trial will then expand to other US cities once it has proven to regulators its autonomous vehicles are safer than regular vehicles.

Elon Musk told those on the call that Tesla is already in discussions about licensing its self-driving tech but failed to name the car brands, nor give any other details.

Helping build enthusiasm for Tesla’s future, Musk said: “I’m not saying it’s an easy path, but I see a path for Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far.

“There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined.”

Currently Tesla is viewed by investors as the eighth-most valuable company in the world with a $US1.3 trillion ($A2.1t) market capitalisation.

Adding up the top five companies is said to equate to a dizzying $US15 trillion ($A24t).

Helping it achieve its lofty ambition, Musk predicts its Tesla Optimus humanoid robots would soon generate around $US10 trillion ($A16t) in revenue.

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