EV sales boom to continue in second half of 2021: EV Council

Soon-to-be-implemented EV incentives and more electric cars to choose from – as well as increasing momentum towards and acceptance of EVs – will lead to a boom in sales in the second half of the year, according to the Electric Vehicle Council of Australia.

Off the back of record first-half EV sales for 2021, EV Council CEO Behyad Jafari believes the trend will continue, buoyed by the NSW incentives that have been delayed from their September 1 start date but are still expected to pass.

“We’ve seen this right around the country as well as in New Zealand,” he said. “It pretty well follows, not just having the rebate but the size of the rebate as well that it does cause a jump in sales and it causes a very immediate one … yes, there’s a sharp jump right away but then there’s a pretty steady rise after that too.”

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The EV Council is forecasting about 15,000 sales of BEVs and PHEVs for all of 2021, which would represent a 117 percent increase over the full-year figures for 2020.

But there’s every chance sales of EVs for 2021 could surge beyond that given the imminent introduction of the NSW government incentives that can save buyers up to $5500.

“There are customers who want electric vehicles, they just want the right one to be at the right price for them,” said Jafari. “Every time there’s a price drop there are people who are right there on the edge [of affordability] going ‘well ok, now I can afford it’.”

By far the most popular EV on the market is the Tesla Model 3 and it has been given various price reductions that make it about 19 percent cheaper than it was a year ago. It’s the most affordable Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus that is believed to be the best seller of the three models on offer.

That also occurred against the backdrop of rising prices across much of the new-car market, including the Model 3’s most natural rivals in the BMW 3-Series and Mercedes-Benz C-Class.

Buyers digging deep for EVs

But Jafari said there are more people now willing to spend more on an EV than they would have on an ICE vehicle.

“Overwhelmingly, people are reaching further than they’ve ever reached before because they want to buy an electric vehicle,” he said. “It’s not people who are really well off, it’s people who are making their dollar stretch … they’ve saved up a bit more.”

And Jafari says lockdowns could be driving more money into electric vehicles.

“People being able to do less means they have a bit more money to buy a car,” he said.

“Money that would have gone to the average family holiday, it’s sitting in the bank. They’re saying ‘well, we can either put it into the mortgage – and that’s boring – or we can do something else fun with it, and maybe that’s buying a car.”

NSW EV incentives delayed, but coming soon

One big challenge is when NSW passes the proposed EV bill into parliament. Covid-related lockdowns have delayed the bill’s passing in parliament, although the intention is still to move as planned – possibly with backdating of rebates so that those who purchase from the planned September 1, 2021 date would not be disadvantaged.

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“The state is in lockdown, so whenever that gets fixed the bill will get through,” Jafari said, adding that “it’s going to start later than they [the government] expected”.

“We’re very shortly … going to be clear on direction from the government in terms of what they’ll do in terms of being able to backdate rebates.

“We’re waiting for that communication from the Treasurer to say ‘here’s how we’re going to manage that’.

Jafari was hopeful it would be approved soon and that any rebates would be backdated to the originally planned September 1 start date.

Before the end of the year there will be a number of important new arrivals that could take the fight to Tesla. They include the Polestar 2, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Volvo XC40 Pure Electric, while the Kia EV6 is now likely to arrive early in 2022.